![]() ![]() Although they lost some star power in Andre Burakovsky, Darcy Kuemper, and Nazem Kadri, departing through unrestricted free agency, the Avalanche still retain one of the best core groups in hockey. To likely no one’s surprise, the Colorado Avalanche were projected to be the top team in their division and the entire Western Conference. 2022-23 GAR Standings Projectionsīelow are the GAR standings projections for both the Pacific and Central Divisions for the 2022-23 season: Overall, I’m hoping to see some cleaner projections with the adjusted methodology for projecting out goaltender GAR. The Jets were highly touted, mainly driven by Connor Hellebuyck’s 26.9 GAR projection. The Blackhawks were projected much too highly, and a large chunk of that was Marc-Andre Fleury’s huge 27.8 GAR projection based on his performance in Vegas the season prior. This one got the team at the top of the standings correct, with the eventual Stanley Cup champion Colorado Avalanche. Here’s the Central Division standings projections from last season compared to actual results:Īnd the actual division standings from last season: The Golden Knights ended up missing the playoffs entirely and certainly didn’t live up to the expectations most had set for them last season. Unfortunately for them, a lot of that star power was injured for most of the season, and it seemed like they really missed Marc-Andre Fleury in net. ![]() The Flames were one of the best teams in the NHL last season, and that was a large miss by the projections last season.Īdditionally, the Golden Knights were really highly touted entering last season with a bevy of star power. The Flames were a huge miss by the projections, mainly because they didn’t account for the huge seasons from Johnny Gaudreau (31.3 GAR vs 10.5 projected), Matthew Tkachuk (24 GAR vs 10.5 projected), Elias Lindholm (22.1 GAR vs 7 projected), and Oliver Kylington (22.1 GAR vs no projection). The Kraken never seemed to click offensively, and former Cap Philipp Grubauer struggled immensely in net. The Kraken were analytical darlings entering the season, but a lot of that player value was buoyed by the fact that the better players they acquired were in better situations on the teams they played for previously. Overall, there were some pretty big misses in the Pacific Division projections from last year. In the Pacific Division standings projections from last season, here’s how the projected division standings looked:Īnd here’s what the actual division standings panned out to be: How accurate were last season’s projections? This time, we took the average of the past two season’s performances to help even out one-hit-wonder seasons and in attempt to make some of the projections a little more accurate. That’s not saying that’s his expected level of performance, but it’s a standardized route for a league wide projection.įor goaltenders, we had previously used their GAR performance from the prior season to project out their upcoming season. Players like 2022 first overall pick Juraj Slafkovsky were not given a projection, so he was one of the few given a GAR projection of zero. Other players like Carey Price and Brent Seabrook, who are expected to miss the entire season, were omitted.Īlso, for players who either did not play in the NHL last season or did not have a projection in Evolving Hockey’s data set were given a replacement level score of zero so they wouldn’t overly affect a team’s projections. Players who have a chance of returning from the long-term injury list were also included, like Nicklas Backstrom, Tom Wilson, and Carl Hagelin. Methodologyįor each team’s GAR projection, I used the NHL roster listed for each team on CapFriendly’s team page. If you’d like to learn more about GAR or some of the other statistical terms used in this post, please check out our NHL analytics glossary. The statistics used in this post are courtesy of Evolving Hockey. I’ll talk a bit about the methodology used for calculating the teams’ overall GAR projections, as well as compare some of the projections we made last season to see just how accurate the model is. In this post, I’ll project what the overall Western Conference standings will look like using GAR. The advantage of GAR as a means for measuring overall player value is that it gives us real insight into the holistic performance of a player, unlike that of typical box score statistics such as goals, assists, points, and plus-minus. GAR is a metric that encapsulates player value for every game situation and compares that performance to a replacement level player. ( Part 1 – Eastern Conference) The primary goal of this analysis is to ultimately assess the overall accuracy of the GAR metric for use in these types of projections. #Western conference standings series#In the second and final part of the series of projecting the potential standings of each NHL division using Goals Above Replacement (GAR), I next take a look at the Western Conference. ![]()
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